I would like to push back a bit on this. As a consumer who has dealt with crappy dealers, learned that buy the seller is horse $hit and felt the unknown of “is this thing even real” CPO is a winner. I am a collector and a normie who doesnt value screwing around to save $500 on a 20K watch. I want to deal with a normal salesperson, give them my credit card, and get on my way.
In your math you do not value time and safety at all. The lowest price isnt the best when you look at the whole package.
Also the prices you quote are not correct for at least some of the CPO outlets. Based on my math they are about 10ish% higher than the secondary and you get a serviced watch. That service also has a value that you seem to be discounting.
Also, lets say you want to go shopping with our mom or friend who doesn’t really know watches but only a Rolex will be sufficient for them - you are going straight to the 1916 or other CPO website where they can get something. You might also go to a 1916 or other store where they can see them in real life and/or order one and have a week to return it if they cant get to see one in real life. You are also discounting the ability to see these things in real life because you are so familiar with them. If you put yourself in the shoes of a normie or someone who is terrified of the idea of buying something from some dude on instagram or watchrecon; and/or 15K to them is like an almost unimaginable amount to spend on a watch so mistakes are not allowed - CPO not only makes sense, it is the only option if new is not available.
These CPO discussions only apply to watch nerds who are so deep in the hobby they forget the fear of buying a watch for normal people.
i completely agree with you. there are plenty of good deals to be had on cpo. the blro may be too expensive but the ln gmt is reasonable. the 116500 maybe too expensive but the 116520 is reasonable.
what are the “better” alternatives for $15k-25k?
you could get a nice pre-owned dress watch sure, but how will that serve your desire for a cool sports-watch?
if there were worthy alternatives from other brands, then cpo would’ve failed at launch. rolex have a chance to bury the competition here, and they deserve to be buried.
Here's what I get from Perplexity AI when I ask it to review CPO prices on 1916 and Bucherer:
Model Typical CPO Markup Over Retail
Datejust 0–10%
Oyster Perpetual 20–27%
Explorer/Sea-Dweller 13–25%
Submariner (steel) 50–130%
GMT-Master II (Batman/Pepsi) 65–90%
Daytona (steel) 100%+
A quick scan of Daytonas on 1916's CPO market shows some recent models at ~ 100% markup.
I agree with your point that the RCPO program makes sense for normies for whom there is no option to obtain a "desirable" Rolex at MSRP from an AD.
Maybe the disinfecting sunlight provided here by @velocophile will work to realign the watch purchasing ecosystem for normies who have convinced themselves they need a steel bracelet Rolex at >= 50% MSRP.
3. The markup over retail also isn't the right input. You need to go over grey market. That is the comparison. I mean - heck - what is the markup over retail for an Aquanaut? The markup over retail is a canard. Perplexity will likely not be able to determine am accurate grey market price or differentiate an unserviced watch with no box and papers posted by some dude on watchrecon from his mom's basement from a serviced box and papers piece. Watchcharts is good for common pieces that are traded alot but be careful for AI with less common pieces. It can go sideways fast.
I encourage you to pick a model and see what you can do on the grey market vs. CPO. Then consider your time as a surgeon, factor in the cost of an RSC service, compare apples to apples meaning CPO = box and papers, and see where you wind up. Your time is a surgeon is important. Most people dont value scouring the internet to save a few hundred dollars on a 20k watch vs. grey market a good use of their time.
It wont be 30% for most models.
Maybe pretend you are buying a date just for your mom and she wants some diamonds on the dial and then consider that would be a special order and a 41mm would be allocated. Now ask your mom if she wants it today or maybe never.
There are variables that need to be given a dollar value in these analysis that are being ignored.
Also - I promise I am just a normie collector type and not a shill for some CPO company. I literally did this math twice in the last few weeks for friends and family and both times CPO made way more sense than wiring money to some dude on instagram or waiting forever.
Good point, the markup over grey is the metric to review here in this discussion.
As you have asked me to consider my time as a surgeon, I will do so, and I will try to keep this brief because the reading on my give-a-shit meter about Rolex is about as high as my give-a-shit meter for Kim Kardashian.
I decided to follow your advice and see what I could do grey market vs. CPO on a popular Rolex. I chose one for which I know market pricing because I got it at MSRP but then unloaded it on the grey market because it bored me: the GMT Master II "Batman."
Within a few seconds of searching on a very large and popular watch wholesale group on Facebook, I find a listing for a 2023 Rolex Batman offered at $15,900 with box and papers and green and white hang tags. I note that a 2023 should not need the value added RSC service provided on the RCPO models, similar to one of the points @velocophile makes in his article.
I searched 1916 Company RCPO but not Bucherer and the newest Batmans (Batmen?) are a few 2021 and 2022 models, all listed at $19,450.
The decision to pay $3,350 more for a RCPO 2021 from 1916 over a 2023 Batman on a heavily policed but still pseudonymous FB group is a decision each person needs to make for themselves. For some people that $3,350 delta is a BFD and has to be considered carefully.
As noted at the outset of this message, I agree that you have properly asserted that markup over grey is an appropriate metric to review here.
Thanks for your reply, all the best. I'm off to spend my time searching the interwebz for non-Rolexes on the grey market.
you’re forgetting another major benefit to the buyer from the cpo program: the chance to build a relationship with the ad.
people can scoff at this all they like, but if demand exceeds supply for a product, then it’ll only be offered to customers who’ve already brought some business to the retailer. cpo is a chance to become a customer without having to purchase undesirable products from other brands that are even more overpriced than cpo inventory.
if the cpo program proves to be a long-term success, it will only be because consumers view cpo as better value than buying new watches of other brands. rolex will get away with it because the competition is incapable or unwilling to sell watches that are worth buying.
In a more normal market, there’s be no need to develop a relationship with an AD for a mass produced product (except for something like off-catalog pieces).
i would love to go back to a more “normal” market, where you don’t have a 100 buyers for every steel gmt. but that is not the reality we live in.
so the question is why is there so much excess demand for steel rolex? the answer has always been obvious to any honest consumer: no other brand at that price-point can offer a product that comes close to rolex. it’s not even close in terms of quality and design, and also softer factors like prestige. enthusiasts can argue over this all they like, but consumer behavior is proof enough.
so what’s the solution to excess demand for steel rolex? a major portion of buyers have to just leave the hobby and find something else to do with their time and money. they’re not getting the satisfaction they seek anyway, so why continue? if we can bring demand back down to early 2010s level, then the ones who remain interested in watches will have their pick of most steel rolex, and cpo prices will be below retail.
I would like to push back a bit on this. As a consumer who has dealt with crappy dealers, learned that buy the seller is horse $hit and felt the unknown of “is this thing even real” CPO is a winner. I am a collector and a normie who doesnt value screwing around to save $500 on a 20K watch. I want to deal with a normal salesperson, give them my credit card, and get on my way.
In your math you do not value time and safety at all. The lowest price isnt the best when you look at the whole package.
Also the prices you quote are not correct for at least some of the CPO outlets. Based on my math they are about 10ish% higher than the secondary and you get a serviced watch. That service also has a value that you seem to be discounting.
Also, lets say you want to go shopping with our mom or friend who doesn’t really know watches but only a Rolex will be sufficient for them - you are going straight to the 1916 or other CPO website where they can get something. You might also go to a 1916 or other store where they can see them in real life and/or order one and have a week to return it if they cant get to see one in real life. You are also discounting the ability to see these things in real life because you are so familiar with them. If you put yourself in the shoes of a normie or someone who is terrified of the idea of buying something from some dude on instagram or watchrecon; and/or 15K to them is like an almost unimaginable amount to spend on a watch so mistakes are not allowed - CPO not only makes sense, it is the only option if new is not available.
These CPO discussions only apply to watch nerds who are so deep in the hobby they forget the fear of buying a watch for normal people.
i completely agree with you. there are plenty of good deals to be had on cpo. the blro may be too expensive but the ln gmt is reasonable. the 116500 maybe too expensive but the 116520 is reasonable.
what are the “better” alternatives for $15k-25k?
you could get a nice pre-owned dress watch sure, but how will that serve your desire for a cool sports-watch?
if there were worthy alternatives from other brands, then cpo would’ve failed at launch. rolex have a chance to bury the competition here, and they deserve to be buried.
Here's what I get from Perplexity AI when I ask it to review CPO prices on 1916 and Bucherer:
Model Typical CPO Markup Over Retail
Datejust 0–10%
Oyster Perpetual 20–27%
Explorer/Sea-Dweller 13–25%
Submariner (steel) 50–130%
GMT-Master II (Batman/Pepsi) 65–90%
Daytona (steel) 100%+
A quick scan of Daytonas on 1916's CPO market shows some recent models at ~ 100% markup.
I agree with your point that the RCPO program makes sense for normies for whom there is no option to obtain a "desirable" Rolex at MSRP from an AD.
Maybe the disinfecting sunlight provided here by @velocophile will work to realign the watch purchasing ecosystem for normies who have convinced themselves they need a steel bracelet Rolex at >= 50% MSRP.
1. AI got you in trouble here. An average doesn't tell the story.
2. The watch press is already reporting this: https://usa.watchpro.com/bucherer-charges-almost-three-times-higher-premiums-for-rolex-cpo-watches-than-the-1916-company-2/
3. The markup over retail also isn't the right input. You need to go over grey market. That is the comparison. I mean - heck - what is the markup over retail for an Aquanaut? The markup over retail is a canard. Perplexity will likely not be able to determine am accurate grey market price or differentiate an unserviced watch with no box and papers posted by some dude on watchrecon from his mom's basement from a serviced box and papers piece. Watchcharts is good for common pieces that are traded alot but be careful for AI with less common pieces. It can go sideways fast.
I encourage you to pick a model and see what you can do on the grey market vs. CPO. Then consider your time as a surgeon, factor in the cost of an RSC service, compare apples to apples meaning CPO = box and papers, and see where you wind up. Your time is a surgeon is important. Most people dont value scouring the internet to save a few hundred dollars on a 20k watch vs. grey market a good use of their time.
It wont be 30% for most models.
Maybe pretend you are buying a date just for your mom and she wants some diamonds on the dial and then consider that would be a special order and a 41mm would be allocated. Now ask your mom if she wants it today or maybe never.
There are variables that need to be given a dollar value in these analysis that are being ignored.
Also - I promise I am just a normie collector type and not a shill for some CPO company. I literally did this math twice in the last few weeks for friends and family and both times CPO made way more sense than wiring money to some dude on instagram or waiting forever.
Good point, the markup over grey is the metric to review here in this discussion.
As you have asked me to consider my time as a surgeon, I will do so, and I will try to keep this brief because the reading on my give-a-shit meter about Rolex is about as high as my give-a-shit meter for Kim Kardashian.
I decided to follow your advice and see what I could do grey market vs. CPO on a popular Rolex. I chose one for which I know market pricing because I got it at MSRP but then unloaded it on the grey market because it bored me: the GMT Master II "Batman."
Within a few seconds of searching on a very large and popular watch wholesale group on Facebook, I find a listing for a 2023 Rolex Batman offered at $15,900 with box and papers and green and white hang tags. I note that a 2023 should not need the value added RSC service provided on the RCPO models, similar to one of the points @velocophile makes in his article.
I searched 1916 Company RCPO but not Bucherer and the newest Batmans (Batmen?) are a few 2021 and 2022 models, all listed at $19,450.
The decision to pay $3,350 more for a RCPO 2021 from 1916 over a 2023 Batman on a heavily policed but still pseudonymous FB group is a decision each person needs to make for themselves. For some people that $3,350 delta is a BFD and has to be considered carefully.
As noted at the outset of this message, I agree that you have properly asserted that markup over grey is an appropriate metric to review here.
Thanks for your reply, all the best. I'm off to spend my time searching the interwebz for non-Rolexes on the grey market.
It’s a rather large increase compared to market value. If I was a new collector and I bought one, it would leave a bad taste in my mouth
you’re forgetting another major benefit to the buyer from the cpo program: the chance to build a relationship with the ad.
people can scoff at this all they like, but if demand exceeds supply for a product, then it’ll only be offered to customers who’ve already brought some business to the retailer. cpo is a chance to become a customer without having to purchase undesirable products from other brands that are even more overpriced than cpo inventory.
if the cpo program proves to be a long-term success, it will only be because consumers view cpo as better value than buying new watches of other brands. rolex will get away with it because the competition is incapable or unwilling to sell watches that are worth buying.
In a more normal market, there’s be no need to develop a relationship with an AD for a mass produced product (except for something like off-catalog pieces).
i would love to go back to a more “normal” market, where you don’t have a 100 buyers for every steel gmt. but that is not the reality we live in.
so the question is why is there so much excess demand for steel rolex? the answer has always been obvious to any honest consumer: no other brand at that price-point can offer a product that comes close to rolex. it’s not even close in terms of quality and design, and also softer factors like prestige. enthusiasts can argue over this all they like, but consumer behavior is proof enough.
so what’s the solution to excess demand for steel rolex? a major portion of buyers have to just leave the hobby and find something else to do with their time and money. they’re not getting the satisfaction they seek anyway, so why continue? if we can bring demand back down to early 2010s level, then the ones who remain interested in watches will have their pick of most steel rolex, and cpo prices will be below retail.
So you’re still reading Hodinkee 😂